some first quarter thoughts.
very excitable crowds rising from the left. perhaps warranted. but i have to wonder how many of them are taking into account these questions: how many months until the next election? how many months would impeachment take? which course for removing him from power is more likely to succeed? is it worth risking the lesser likely one (impeachment) at a time when failure will make winning the election impossible for a democrat in exchange for the difference between the answers to the first two questions? impeachment might take 5/6 months and line up with democratic debates and campaigns and would dominate news story over candidate platforms (which would actually help trump with his base.)
it seems like this is a slam dunk if viewed in a vacuum. the dialogue from the call alone is damaging and even republicans seem to be acknowledging that it’s only part of the story. how could one NOT view this as suggesting transaction in some way? but this isn’t a vacuum. we know the trump people are hard to convince. nothing convinces them, actually. it might be the case that the only way to pry any away are to ignore him and talk about policy. talk about things that might be able to change.
it feels like unless this news story continues to change things quite a bit, which is possible but not likely, there’s not a prayer of actual impeachment happening. so again we’re in a position where the more dems talk and talk and talk about impeachment the more they won’t be talking about voting issues and could lose the election. if the ukraine story doesn’t swing impeachment probability FAST then they (politically speaking) should drop it like a hot potato. they can’t afford to be seen as witch hunters by people who believe them to be witch hunters, however stupid that view is.
we also shouldn’t assume that troll of a fuck in the oval office is playing three dimensional chess but if he is thinking that attacking biden ends up causing left-leaning people to rally around biden and then choose him for a nominee it is a brilliant move by trump. trump would play biden like a fucking drum in the general election. it would be hillary 2.0. biden is the most hillary-like candidate in this field, and as much as it pains me that this is a factor he is even a worse talker than she was.
one would think that pelosi is smarter and more informed about all this shit than we are. but what about the last few years of dem leadership and decision making should lead us to say “i’m sure she’s done her homework on this”? dem leadership gave us the least electable person as a candidate in the last election. we know hilary was the least electable person because she lost to the second least electable person.
and we also should keep this in mind — maybe we are all just assholes for overanalyzing the political ramifications of this. what if pelosi knows that it’s risky and/or not smart but has a BELIEF that it’s the right thing to do? that there really isn’t a point in having balance of powers written into the constitution if the house, under dem control, can do a goddamn thing about a blatant abuse of power in another branch?
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what is most troubling to me about it all is that it is clear that many people that have found ways to rise to power in our system are demonstrating a blatant disregard for the norms that are set up to keep the institutions running. also, it’s terrifying that a large portion of our population doesn’t seem to care about the fact that people in power don’t care for those norms. consider the following:
— trump has taken to the media to suspect his detractors of treason.
— trump suggested adam schiff be arrested for nothing more than doing his job.
— trump is able to manipulate the media in a way that erodes public trust in government. it is not good that this ukraine scandal is being used by him to convince his followers that all democrats are evil and have veiled intentions.
— people with vested interests in the success of the president attempted to suppress the actions of the whistleblower (who was acting legally and was actually following protocol for the situation he found him/herself in). if successful this complaint would not have seen the light of day. it is very critical to the backlash of this event that a big percentage of the population believe trump when he calls this essentially a “leak.” it is NOT a leak. it is a person working in government working through legal channels to report something he/she was troubled by.
— polling shows that a meaningful percentage of the population say they don’t think it’s even wrong if trump did ask for help from a foreign leader to investigate a political rival.
— fox news is making the center of this story biden’s role in ukraine. successfully deflecting from the fact that trump clearly acted out of line with how we should expect a president to behave.
of course i hope he’s fucking impeached. he’s a fucking nightmare. he takes the least amount of professional talent into account when making decisions. if he was managing your favorite nba team you would want to chop off his head for incompetency. he doesn’t consult with the top economists about the economy or the top scientists about advancements in science or with the leaders in healthcare about what to do with our broken healthcare system. he’s so divorced from scientific fact that he once gave public voice for the argument that vaccines cause autism. that’s fucking dumb. he’s an egomaniac who is convinced he has the answers, and that is the worst kind of person. he has no humility. i just hope we know what to do with what comes next.
