A Sharper Lens of Compassion

Thursday, October 22, 2020

I’m frustrated, disappointed, and concerned.

Am I overreacting?

While the American political narrative spent yesterday having a frenzied circle jerk about Hunter Biden and emails and Rudy Giuliani and Borat, more than 1,200 Americans died from COVID-19.

COVID-19 is on pace to be the third leading cause of mortality in our country this year, behind heart disease and cancer. As of today something like 222,000 deaths have been attributed to this pandemic in the United States. If you happen to believe that number is inflated, try to reconcile your opinion with the measurements of excess total deaths. If you define a typical year with the average annual deaths from 2015–2019, nearly 300,000 more people have died from all causes this year through September than what we could expect based on the average. For some, it might be even more troubling to hear that for 25 to 44 year-olds excess death rate “is up 26.5 percent over previous years, the largest change for any age group.” To be clear and potentially redundant, more than 400,000 excess deaths will occur this year than we would have predicted in January if we made a prediction based on the last five years’ average. 400,000.

A Harvard researcher recently calculated, using life expectancy for those that have passed, that COVID-19 has cost Americans 2.5 million years of combined life.

While obviously what the government chooses to attempt to mitigate spread will have an economic impact, lessons from spring/summer suggest that economic contraction is more closely linked to where the virus is most prevalent than linked to government lockdown decisions. This bodes less than well for what we can expect to happen economically in the winter months that, as we were reminded by the last couple day’s dumping of snow in my home state of Minnesota, are now with us.

Currently the United States is 11th worst in the world with deaths per 100k population. Has this come as a trade-off for protecting the economy? No. Our economic decline in the second quarter of 2020 was in the same neighborhood as countries like Germany, Czech Republic, Romania, and the Netherlands (all non-island nations that fared much better on metrics of deaths per 100k population). In fact, analysis done at ourworldindata.org has found that there is no data suggesting a trade-off occurs. Countries with the worst economic downturns are generally the countries with the highest death rates, while countries that keep the death rate low manage to have a more modest economic impact.

Again, not facts that fare well for a country with no plan to mitigate spread heading into winter.

We often hear “The flu kills x number of people per year!” or “X number of people die every year. It’s just the way it is!” Okay, well the Vietnam war claimed less than 60,000 American lives. I wasn’t around then, but I’m curious if anyone would like to make the argument that “Because of the low death count in Vietnam, it wasn’t worth much of a response morally or culturally.”

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I have friends who claim it’s too early to say we have had an inadequate response to COVID-19. Honestly, I can’t quite square that sentiment with the above data that compares our death rates and economic outcomes to other nations (to get a more full understanding try the Mortality Analyses page at Johns Hopkins and “Which countries have protected both health and the economy in the pandemic?” at ourworldindata.org). Even if I cede that it’s too early to give out a full on grade, which it very well may be, we have to at least all admit that when we are attempting to do well at any task it is important to draw comparative lessons. And if we haven’t been perfect, which nobody has, then we shouldn’t shy from trying to adopt some things that worked better for others than for us. Surely that can’t be a controversial idea on its own merit.

I also have friends who say things like: But what about the economy now? But what about mental health? But what about the riots?…media and fear?…Scott Atlas?…flu?…“more than 99% of people don’t die!”…Democratic mayors and governors?…and I have friends that got it and they are fine!…AND THE ECONOMY!

To them — the people who want to constantly counter any suggestion that we need to do better on COVID-19 with “Buts” — I have, I suppose, a lot of comments/questions. I’ll only give two of them much space here:

First, on the economy, the government certainly needs to do a better job to ensure that small businesses and working people get through what has already been a tough time and could get tougher. Even if you don’t believe in big government in steady times, a steadying and capable government is desired in unsteady times. And please please please pay attention to what’s happening globally. The data is quite clear that countries have a hard time avoiding economic contraction if the virus runs wild. America is not so different from everywhere else that it will not react to similar levers of control. We need to make attempts to be one of the places with lower death count and more modest economic impact.

Also, even if you’re convinced that we should be plowing through whatever is happening now in the name of keeping the economy going, think about what kind of decision you’re pegging your bet to long term. Are we to assume there’s not going to be a drastic long term economic cost to losing 2.5+ million years of combined economic activity in an economic model intrinsically dependent on growth? Maybe, just maybe we should acknowledge that short term economic costs might lead to better long term outcomes? Maybe really, truly, meaningfully taking control of the spread in early 2020 would mean we could have more people going to more concerts, bars, and sporting events safely now? Maybe the winter wouldn’t be so doomed economically if we had paid pennies in March for dollars in November? Maybe we shouldn’t be so certain that there won’t be drastic long term costs to the health care industry because of what COVID-19 means for people that don’t die from it but have pulmonary scarring or myocarditis?

Second is more personal and to my eye should be more convincing than whatever came first. My mother is a teacher in a school district where a lot of people don’t think this pandemic should be taken very seriously. In one town close to where she teaches I saw someone in a store that had written in Sharpie on their mask “Democrat political bullshit” and in another town nearby I saw a yard sign where someone suggested that the reason the Amish haven’t been getting COVID-19 is because they don’t watch television.

Sadly, many rural communities have taken a political line that leads them to be less concerned if this THING spreads among them or to their kids or if those kids pack into schools. A recent report from the Israeli Ministry of Health found that children are “the engine of the outbreak.” If, God forbid, my mother gets COVID-19, there’s a good chance she’ll be okay. She’s active, tough, and doesn’t appear like she could possibly have three kids in their thirties. But, my mom is 60, and if Godforfuckingbid she gets dangerously ill from this thing I have a feeling my friends who have been critical of my concern on the issue will have a little different view (at least I hope). At a minimum they might start feeling stupid for telling me my precautions are irrational or that it’s silly that I won’t go to bars or gyms lately.

I don’t bring that to attention to gain some type of social standing for caring the way I do. I’m merely pointing out that it’s natural that our emotional responses to a pandemic are tempered or exasperated in part by how personally it has touched us. Now square that natural tendency with the realization that somewhere between 200,000 and 300,000 families have already had to come to terms with the dangerous reality of what we’re dealing with. They have already had to grieve. Now sprinkle in a little extra compassion. Don’t require for it to hit home to care as if it already has. Just choose to not procrastinate that compassion. Care more about having a position that aims to alleviate suffering.

I can’t possibly ignore a painful and obvious hypocrisy about rural religiosity. Was all that WWJD stuff I was raised around just talk? What about the do unto others stuff? Or as this pandemic disproportionately ravages the poor and turns the healthy into needy:
“Whoever oppresses a poor man insults his Maker, but he who is generous to the needy honors him.” — Proverbs 14:31

I can’t believe in the last six months I have actually heard people say things like, “It *only* kills the sick or old!” Only?!?!?! How can a society that claims to respect the wisdom and presence of its elders so blatantly embrace this sick form of geronticide-by-neglect?

Now add some humble awareness and acknowledge that, even if we disagree on how, we have to all admit it’s possible to be better.

What often strikes me most about all of the “Buts” is the assumption of pairing. An assumption that to approach this issue with more compassion or seriousness would require divorcing the belief that other stuff is important too. That’s simply not the case. You don’t have to become a liberal to be more worried about this pandemic. You don’t have to quit thinking rioting is bad. You don’t have to quit being thankful this pandemic isn’t more deadly than it is. You don’t have to quit caring about mental health or the economy. You don’t have to quit believing that the media and its fucked up compensation models prey on our fears and worst desires. I certainly still believe that. You don’t have to bundle what you think along party lines and end up neglecting the facts of a pandemic.

Maybe if small towns care as much about the sanctity of life as their billboards suggest they do they should value the lives threatened by this pandemic. Maybe if they are distrustful of government intervention they should choose to raise funds independently of government to help keep local businesses alive in what will surely be a tough winter. Maybe they should buy up thousands of dollars worth of gift cards for local small businesses. Or probably they can come up with solutions that are much better than I can while I type this in the passenger seat of a car. But probably they shouldn’t keep neglecting risk.

I don’t have the answers, but I am pretty clear on a few things. This pandemic hasn’t turned the corner. We can’t just make it pass by hoping it has sufficiently passed. It’s going to be here and it’s going to claim more lives. Our economy won’t rally sufficiently if we don’t take the pandemic more seriously. Our lack of compassion for those at higher risk amounts to a moral blindness. The further you are from those simple statements, the further your worldview is from contact with reality. And we must do better. Wear a mask. Stay distant. Support local businesses. Care more.